欧冠4强概率：2场高端局！巴萨72%但愿晋级，皇马5成把抓

北京时辰3月13日凌晨，欧冠1/8决赛次回合4场战罢，多特蒙德淘汰里尔、阿森纳总比分9-3大捷埃因霍温、皇马点球大战4-2治服马竞、维拉总比分6-1布鲁日，多特、阿森纳、皇马、维拉得到8强席位。至此，欧冠8强及对阵地点揭晓：

上半区：阿森纳VS皇马，巴黎圣日耳曼VS维拉

下半区：巴萨VS多特，拜仁VS国米

8大豪强捉对拼杀，其中2场高端局——皇马VS阿森纳，国米VS拜仁，谁能晋级4强？OPTA使用超等筹谋机，对4组对话进行10000次模拟，得出论断：巴萨、巴黎圣日耳曼有7成把抓，皇马和阿森纳基本上五五开。

巴萨VS多特：巴萨晋级概率72%

本赛季欧冠联赛阶段第6轮，巴萨客场3-2打败多特。那场比赛，拉菲尼亚破损僵局，费兰-托雷斯替补梅开二度。巴萨人强马壮，前场领有亚马尔、莱万、拉菲尼亚3猛攻击巨星，中场有佩德里镇守，被看好亦然理所虽然。

拜仁VS国米：国米晋级概率56%

这亦然欧冠“高端局”，比较之下，OPTA更看好国米。本赛季欧冠联赛阶段，国米8场19分纵贯16强。国米的防护极为强悍，联赛阶段只丢1球。拜仁在淘汰赛附加赛打败凯尔特东说念主之后，1/8决赛5-0横扫勒沃库森，渐入佳境。OPTA以为，国米晋级概率56%，拜仁为44%。

皇马VS阿森纳：皇马晋级概率51%

从OPTA给出的晋级概率来看，这是真实的势均力敌：皇马51%，阿森纳49%。皇马磕趔趄绊，但欧冠底蕴浑厚，附加赛淘汰曼城，1/8决赛点杀马竞。比较之下，阿森纳更顺利，纵贯16强之后，1/8决赛9-3狂胜埃因霍温。

巴黎圣日耳曼VS维拉：巴黎晋级概率70%

OPTA以为，巴黎晋级概率70%，维拉晋级概率30%。过程1/8决赛的浸礼，巴黎圣日耳曼更强大，更有韧劲。附加赛10-0血洗布雷斯特，1/8决赛点杀利物浦，巴黎顺风局、迎风局齐可圈可点。维拉的上风是埃梅里——西班牙名帅能否扳倒我方的前东家？

附：OPTA瞻望欧冠8队晋级概率

巴萨72%，巴黎圣日耳曼70%，国米56%，皇马51%，阿森纳49%，拜仁44%，维拉30%，多特28%。

举报/响应","del":0,"gnid":"91e439064f873f0a9","img_data":[{"flag":"2","img":[{"desc":"","height":"530","title":"","url":"http://p9.img.360kuai.com/t11508c75c89e7ee84a62df6e10.jpg","width":"640"},{"desc":"","height":"1194","title":"","url":"http://p9.img.360kuai.com/t11508c75c850963d4b6abef226.jpg","width":"640"},{"desc":"","height":"612","title":"","url":"http://p9.img.360kuai.com/t11508c75c8512200e91a9251ca.jpg","width":"640"},{"desc":"","height":"427","title":"","url":"http://p9.img.360kuai.com/t11508c75c8bb0e214da45a71b9.jpg","width":"640"},{"desc":"","height":"590","title":"","url":"http://p9.img.360kuai.com/t11508c75c861db1256887d7bf3.jpg","width":"640"},{"desc":"","height":"551","title":"","url":"http://p9.img.360kuai.com/t11508c75c85b6d82ef03fc01dc.jpg","width":"640"}]}],"original":0,"pat":"art_src_6,fts0,sts0","powerby":"cache","pub_time":1741825320000,"pure":"","rawurl":"http://zm.news.so.com/d96aa00df85888a56f77b898061efb4f","redirect":0,"rptid":"267bc96f70f9322c","rss_ext":[],"s":"t","src":"叶青足球寰球","tag":[{"clk":"ksport_1:国米","k":"国米","u":""},{"clk":"ksport_1:阿森纳","k":"阿森纳","u":""},{"clk":"ksport_1:维拉","k":"维拉","u":""},{"clk":"ksport_1:opta","k":"opta","u":""},{"clk":"ksport_1:巴黎圣日耳曼","k":"巴黎圣日耳曼","u":""},{"clk":"ksport_1:巴萨","k":"巴萨","u":""},{"clk":"ksport_1:拜仁","k":"拜仁","u":""},{"clk":"ksport_1:皇马","k":"皇马","u":""},{"clk":"ksport_1:欧冠","k":"欧冠","u":""}],"title":"欧冠4强概率：2场高端局！巴萨72%但愿晋级，皇马5成把抓","type":"zmt","wapurl":"http://zm.news.so.com/d96aa00df85888a56f77b898061efb4f","ytag":"体育:足球:海外足球","zmt":{"brand":{},"cert":"体育范围创作家","desc":"欧冠，西甲，英超，寰球杯，享受足球盛宴","fans_num":0,"id":"130395827","is_brand":"0","name":"叶青足球寰球","new_verify":"7","pic":"https://p0.img.360kuai.com/t01bc3cd0b647b11408.jpg","real":1,"textimg":"https://p9.img.360kuai.com/bl/0_3/t017c4d51e87f46986f.png","verify":"0"},"zmt_status":0}","errmsg":"","errno":0}